Paul, International Octopus of Mystery, Is Declared an Enemy by Iranian President

Poor Paul. Who would have guessed that a psychic cephalopod could have so many enemies?

Paul, a two year old Octopus vulgaris, acquired world-wide notoriety after he correctly predicted the winner of all seven of Germany’s World Cup games, as well as the final between Spain and the Netherlands. For this feat, he received death threats from the nationals of teams Paul predicted to lose, including, eventually, threats from fellow Germans after he correctly predicted their defeat by Spain.

Even after retiring from predicting the outcome football matches, Paul has continued to make enemies. Not least among these is the fearsome and blood-thirsty Team Edward, who turned on Paul after he declared his allegiance to Team Jacob.

And now Paul is being attacked by the nation of Iran. In a speech in Tehran, President Ahmadinejad declared that Paul is a symbol of Western corruption and folly, and that only nations that despise psychic octopuses are worthy of being global powers:

[T]he Iranian president accused the octopus of spreading “western propaganda and superstition.” Paul was mentioned by Mr Ahmadinejad on various occasions during a speech in Tehran at the weekend.

“Those who believe in this type of thing cannot be the leaders of the global nations that aspire, like Iran, to human perfection, basing themselves in the love of all sacred values,” he said.

This is not the first time that Paul has gotten involved with national politics. Although the results have been sealed until 2012, Paul has also predicted the outcome of Russia’s next presidential election.

Of course, not only Western nations have fallen under Paul’s spell. China has gone Paul-crazy. Chinese film-makers even made a movie about Paul and “how the octopus acquires the ability and discuss his possible fates.” Admittedly, it’s hard to tell if the movie is an homage or a threat: the title is ‘The Murder of Paul the Octopus.’

Not to spoil anything, but my guess is the lead suspect will be Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

-Susan

3 Americans In Iran To Face Trial: Maybe That’s Ok?

The Iranian foreign minister announced today that three American hikers arrested after crossing the border last July would face trial in Tehran.  Although many news outlets seem to be misreporting that the trio will face espionage charges, quotes directly from Iran indicate the actual charges have not yet been determined.

Unsurprisingly, America isn’t happy about the proposed trial.  Back in November, Secretary Clinton criticized the hikers’ detainment, stating:

“We believe strongly that there is no evidence to support any charge whatsoever. And we would renew our request on behalf of these three young people and their families that the Iranian government exercise compassion and release them so they can return home.”

I understand that there are other issues at play here: the three are probably facing nasty interrogation, and any ‘espionage’ charge would be ludicrous.  But can we really say that there is “no evidence to support any charge whatsoever?”  I’m not an immigration lawyer, but U.S. law seems to contain a prohibition against unlawful entry, accidental or otherwise.  See 8 U.S.C. § 1325:

Any alien who . . . enters or attempts to enter the United States at any time or place other than as designated by immigration officers . . . shall, for the first commission of any such offense, be fined under title 18 or imprisoned not more than 6 months, or both, and, for a subsequent commission of any such offense, be fined under title 18, or imprisoned not more than 2 years, or both.

Even though we might not like it, would it really be unjust for Iran to try these hikers under their own unlawful entry statute?  Particularly when the three assumed a degree of risk when they decided to go hiking on the border of the country perhaps most adverse to Americans? 

-Michael

Is The Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program Really Illegal?

Over the past few days, nuclear proliferation and the legality of nuclear weapons have garnered a lot of attention.  With the revelation that Iran has a secret nuclear facility close to completion, many leaders are making demands that Iran open the facility for inspection and confirm that it is not for military purposes.

But all this made me wonder: how is Iran’s nuclear weapons program actually illegal under international law?  The law of nuclear proliferation is a confusing field without many clear answers.  Just for the sake of argument, however, let’s assume that the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion in Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons represents the current state of relevant international law.

First, it’s important to remember that the decision found no particular prohibition (or authorization) in international law against (or for) the use or threat of nuclear weapons.  Therefore, ignoring the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the mere development of nuclear weapons would not be against international law.  Moreover, even threats to use nuclear weapons would not always be illegal.  A mere statement from a country like, “If you attack uswith a nuclear weapon, we’ll attack you,” for example, would probably be ok.  For a while, it seemed like that’s all Iran was saying.  For instance, in 2001, Iran’s President said:

Regarding atomic energy, we need it now… Our nation has always been threatened from outside. The least we can do to face this danger is to let our enemies know that we can defend ourselves. Therefore, every step you take here is in defense of your country and your evolution. With this in mind, you should work hard and at great speed.

That statement seems purely defensive.  Unfortunately, the rhetoric seems to have stepped up.  Here’s one recent statement about the [formerly] secret Iranian nuclear facility:

“God willing, this plant will be put into operation soon, and will blind the eyes of the enemies,” Fars [news agency] reported Saturday, quoting a senior Iranian official.

The senior official, Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, heads the office of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“Blinding the eyes of the enemies” would seem to go beyond the requirements of proportionality and necessity, making that threat illegal. 

Most importantly, Iran ratified the NPT in 1970.  That treaty imposes separate obligations recognized by the ICJ in Nuclear  Weapons, many of which Iran would seem to have broken if they’re building nuclear weapons.  Some of the highlights include:

  • Article II, which states that non-nuclear signatories (like Iran) agree “not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices”;
  • Article III, which requires states to permit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency; and
  • Article VI, which requires all states to engage in good faith negotiations towards nuclear disarmament.

-Michael

Temporarily Out of Fashion: Somalian Piracy. Temporarily In Fashion: Viking Piracy.

I realized this morning, to my intense disappoint, that International Talk Like a Pirate Day was yesterday, and I completely missed it. This won’t happen again, I’ve already programmed it into my phone so there’s no chance of me missing it next year. But to make up for my laxness, I’m declaring today International Pirate Blogging Day and celebrating that by giving an update on the somewhat under-reported story of the Arctic Sea. The Arctic Sea was captured by pirates last July before going MIA on an ocean voyage from Sweden to Africa, and the theories surrounding the whole incident sound suspiciously like the plot of Dan Brown novel.

The (roughly known) facts: The Arctic Sea is a Maltese-flagged ship, owned by a Finnish company, which is in turn owned and run by a Russian citizen living in Finland. which when the hijacking occurred had left port from Finland bound for Algeria, with a cargo of timber (owned by a separate company also controlled by the same Russian citizen who owned the ship) worth $1.7 million on board. Around July 24, the Arctic Sea was then captured off the coast of the lawless, warlord controlled territory of Sweden, but this was not reported publicly. Contact was lost with the ship around July 31, during which time the ship chugged down through the English Channel, around the Iberian peninsula, and then remained missing for a number of weeks. On August 17th, Russia successfully recaptured the ship off the coast of Africa near the island nation of Cape Verde. There were no reported injuries. The eight (ten?) hijackers are apparently ethnic Russians, who speak English, and are either stateless or hold passports to Russia, Latvia or Estonia. As an additional point of confusion, when captured off of Africa the ship’s captain “unexpectedly claimed” to be the North Korean ship Congdin 2, en route from Cuba to Sierra Leone — but as far as I can gather, essentially no one has any idea what the hell that was all about.

Russia announced it would be taking the ship back to a Russian port. Instead, the ship next turned up at the Canary Islands, where it remains in limbo as Spain continues to refuse entry to the Arctic Sea. Malta, where the ship is flagged, has been involved in the negotiations but apparently wants to wash its hands of the whole thing. Russia is less than pleased, and announced that:

“The decision of the Maltese authorities has puzzled the Russian Investigative Committee. Moreover, it contradicts international maritime law. The Maltese action makes the ship docking in the Spanish port of Las Palmas problematic. This also creates problems for the ship’s crew because they are running out of fuel and drinking water[.]”

Far as I can make out, the ship’s still bobbing about in the waters off of Las Palmas, but transfer of the ship to the original owners is being organized. Meanwhile, all the pirates are back in Russia and are currently facing prosecution.

The conspiracy theories: There are dozens of theories out there, but the major claim being made seems to be this whole deal was really about “Russian mobsters selling missiles and/or air defense shields to Iran.” The most convoluted of these tales involve Israel’s Mossad being responsible for the diversion of the ship’s trip to Iran:

Another theory is that Mossad concocted the alleged hijacking by setting up a criminal gang, who were unlikely to have known anything about a secret cargo, instead blocking the route to Iran by the mounting media interest.

“Once the news of the hijack broke, the game was up for the arms dealers. The Russians had to act,” said a former Russian army officer. “That’s why I don’t rule out Mossad being behind the hijacking. It stopped the shipment and gave the Kremlin a way out so that it can now claim it mounted a brilliant rescue mission.”

One serious problem for fans of this theory: Why the heck would Israel entrust the recapture of an arms smuggling ship to a bunch of drug addicted bar brawlers? (Additional note to the hijackers: Fire your lawyers. No one believes y’all were members of a stranded environmentalist group trying to “document environmental abuses.” If that’s the best cover story you’ve got, you’re in big trouble.)

And while it seems like something fishy was going on, given the extreme shortage of reliable reporting out there, its hard to tell right now if it’s anything more sinister than a bunch of deluded Russians becoming the Keystone Kops of the piracy world. Because this was the most incredibly awkward ship hijacking the world has seen since Blackbeard was a teenager. The only thing clear about this whole mess is that the pirates were basically a bunch of dogs chasing a car, and they had no idea what to do with the ship once they actually captured it. So they just decided to cruise it down to Cape Verde for the heck of it.

However, combined with recent diplomatic trips by Israel’s president to Russia to discuss Iranian relations the day after the Arctic Sea was found, as well as the cancellation of the U.S. missile shield plans in Poland and the Czech Republic, there’s enough fodder there for the conspiracy theorists to last them for months.

-Susan