“Given the volume and composition of Brazil’s imports of consumer goods in the year 2007, we determined that there was at least US$409.7 million worth of Brazil’s imports of consumer goods from the United States that could be the subject of countermeasures.”

But, I think it would be wrong to assume that that figure will be the same for FY 2008 or FY2009. And the arbitrators make a big fuss about saying that the number will be different each year.

And yeah, I probably should’ve started with reading the Report. I do want to look into this more, though — I’m still a little bit hesitant about the language you cited from the Annex. It’s labeled as a “formula for calculating… countermeasures,” so might that be interpreted not as a command for action but merely a methodology to be used?

It ends with “Should the United States not be able to provide the most recent fiscal year data on GSM 102 transactions, Brazil shall use the data from the last available fiscal year.” It’s not clear from that what “not be able to” means, or if it could be broadened to include something more like “does not want to.” The US could then argue that the formula provides alternative numbers — the 2008 data — so if the US doesn’t hand over the ’09 data, Brazil’s only option is to go ahead and use the ’08 ones.

I’m totally making this up based on nothing aside from the Annex, so I could be (and probably am) completely off base here. So I’m going to shut up for now until I’ve had more of a chance to read up on it. But if it turns out that the 2008 numbers could be better for us than the 2009 numbers… Well. That might be cause for conflict.